What Independence Means to Me

Those who have followed my musings about the national elections which, already, have left the starting gate may recall that I was toying with the idea of third-party candidates.

I am well aware of the bleak history of those running against the Democrats and Republicans … especially in the cases of Gore v. Bush (2000) and Clinton v. Trump (2016). Without third-party contenders, election victories would easily have gone to Hilary Clinton and Al Gore.

For all the talk about why Donald Trump was elected president while losing the popular vote and how he could win again, one of the least discussed results of the 2016 election offers valuable lessons for Democrats.

An astounding 7.8 million voters cast their presidential ballots for someone other than Trump or Hillary Clinton. The two biggest third-party vote-getters were Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson (almost 4.5 million votes) and the Green Party’s Jill Stein (1.5 million voters). But others received almost another 1.9 million votes as well.

Their strong showing was due to the unpopularity of the two major-party nominees.

New?

If anything, lack of enthusiasm for both party candidates is even stronger today. People will be voting against rather than for: A vote for Biden will likely be a vote against Trump … and vice-versa.

Please, don’t misunderstand: When push comes to shove, the bottom line is simple: Joe Biden is a good man. Donald Trump is not. He’s a very, very bad man. But both are politicians playing to their bases, with difficulty attracting independent voters and suburban women who will probably decide the winners. And if push comes to shove, with Biden as the Democrats’ nominee v.Trump or any other Republican, I will vote for Joe Biden.

However …

Our electorate historically has had 40% voting for Democrats, 40% voting for Republicans, and 20% being unaffiliated, issues-based voters.  But today, the situation has significantly worsened for the two major parties as both have shed support from center-oriented voters who perceive both the right and the left as increasingly pandering to activists and the extremes of each party.

Recent polling data indicates a new split: 35% leaning Democrat, 35% leaning Republican, and a full 30% who are unaffiliated, issues-based voters.  Yes, close to a third of voters today are issue-driven voters looking for solutions to the nation’s problems. These voters may well determine the winner in 2024. What’s more, in another recent poll, close to half of American voters say they would consider backing a third-party candidate if President Biden and former President Trump head toward a rematch in 2024.

Nonetheless, I have changed my mind about supporting third-party candidates in the 2024 presidential election.

Why?

Because I think there’s a better option:

For the greater good of the USA and democracy, per se, I believe President Biden needs to complete his term, step aside, and defer to another candidate.

Not because of his age or health, which concerns many voters, and is a very legitimate concern. But because Americans need to shed these years of divisiveness – of which Joe Biden is part – and move on.

Last summer, after a reporter cited poll numbers suggesting just 26 percent of Democrats wanted him to be the nominee, the president rejected the idea that a large majority of his own party’s voters don’t want him on the ballot in 2024. “Read the polls, Jack!” Biden said. “You guys are all the same. That poll showed that 92 percent of Democrats, if I ran, would vote for me.” This statement, however, was somewhat misleading: Ninety-two percent of Democrats said they would vote for Biden in a general election rematch with Trump, not that they wanted him to run. In fact, 2022 exit polls showed that two-thirds of USA voters don’t want him to run for reelection.  

Nevertheless, Joe Biden launched his re-election campaign with a video in which he says the country faces a pivotal moment in the 2024 vote.

The Democratic Party, however, still needs convincing that he is the best candidate they have. Polls show about half of Democrats want the party to nominate someone else – although many of those have said they will still vote for him. Because of Trump … not because of Biden’s record.

Joe Biden has made it clear he intends to stand for re-election in 2024, but despite his fighting spirit, Biden’s intention may not necessarily hold up.

Within the Democratic party, concerns have grown over the president’s age (he’ll be 82 shortly after the 2024 election), his low approval ratings (he’s mired in the low 40s in job approval), and ongoing political struggles … and you get this: a series of stories examining whether Biden runs again and, if not, who might take his place.

Recent news of classified documents found in his Delaware home have certainly not helped in soothing these concerns. Nor did the dogged plea deals arranged with his son, Hunter.

If Biden does not run, the 2024 Democratic primaries would become a much more open contest. And there are several potential candidates:

• Kamala D. Harris would be the presumptive nominee. Biden’s announcement may raise some doubts that Harris will be his running mate again in 2024. According to The Washington Post, “There have been questions about how voters might feel about that, given that her ascension to the top job is a more real prospect with Biden in his 80s, and she’s generally less popular than both Biden and recent vice presidents. Polls suggest she’s the nominal front-runner in a Biden-less race, but without anything approaching a convincing margin.

• Gretchen Whitmer Democrats have shown they’re more interested in pragmatism, including by nominating Biden in 2020. And it’s hard to see them doing worse than the well-regarded and liked female governor of a swing state (Michigan) who has won two campaigns there by about 10 points. Whitmer has said she wouldn’t run even in a Biden-less race, but it’s not difficult to see a huge recruiting effort emerging. Plenty will believe she is the answer.

• Amy Klobuchar The Minnesota senator is among those seen as quietly doing the things one would do to remain a part of the conversation in a post-Biden race. She makes sense as a stand-in for Biden and his more pragmatic brand of politics, but she might have competition for that lane with others.

• Pete Buttigieg The transportation secretary is seemingly aiming higher — whether in 2024 or 2028 — after passing on running for an open Senate seat in his adoptive home state of Michigan. While he finished fifth in pledged delegates in 2020, it’s worth recalling that he just about won both of the first two states, Iowa and New Hampshire. His lack of appeal to minority voters is a major obstacle that must be dealt with—especially given his open sexual orientation. But he’s also the most established and capable national messenger on this list. And perhaps more people would give him a look now that he’s no longer just a 30-something mayor of a medium-size city. If elected, Buttigieg would be the youngest ever president and the first openly gay man to become president.

• Gavin Newsom Despite his protestations, the California governor is widely viewed as being among the most likely candidates to run if Biden falters. He’s gone to great lengths to build his national profile in recent months, while pushing his party toward a more in-your-face approach to taking on Republicans. It’s easy to see how that message might play well. Newsom is less disliked than Biden and Harris, but is still polling in the single digits. But this may be explained by his slightly lower name recognition among voters. Data from the January Granite State Poll in New Hampshire shows that some voters felt they do not know enough about him to form an opinion yet. If Newsom enters the race for the Democratic nomination, his early campaign strategies would need to be focused on raising his public profile across the nation.

No sitting president in modern American history has been primaried successfully, although intraparty challenges usually end up hurting the incumbent in the general election. If something happens to change Biden’s mind or circumstances in the long months before the 2024 Democratic National Convention in Chicago, however, “then it’s open season,” Tampa-area Democrat Doris Carroll told The Wall Street Journal. 

Whether vice president or wild card favorite, no Democrat except Biden has formally declared an intention to run. The ball is in the president’s court. But if he decides not to run amid increased calls for him to step aside, the Democratic party certainly has options, and the primaries could shape up to become a highly competitive contest.

As they should be.